Tuesday, April 20, 2010

MMG Weekly:Goldman Sachs Tarnished by SEC Charges

Edward F. W. Deanes

Home Mortgage Consultant

Wells Fargo Home Mortgage

Phone: (757) 418-2064

Fax:: (866) 935-0661

 

edward.deanes@wellsfargo.com

www.deanesgroup.com

 

In This Issue  

 

 

 

 

 

 

Last Week in Review: Goldman Sachs allegations of fraud are in the headlines, giving the markets a good shaking up...plus, an update on the new construction housing front.

Forecast for the Week: Market volatility may still be the pattern ahead as earnings season continues, plus more housing, inflation, and job news on the way.

View: Recycling isn't just good for the environment - it can be good for your wallet, too! Learn how.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Last Week In Review  

 

 

 

 

 

 

"NOTHING GOLD CAN STAY"...or so says Robert Frost's famous poem. But the whole market wonders if Goldman Sachs can "stay gold", following last week's shocker headline that the Securities and Exchange Commission is charging the financial giant with fraud.

The SEC is alleging fraud on the part of Goldman Sachs, in relation to their actions surrounding subprime mortgages and Collateralized Debt Obligations. Here's an analogy of how the SEC sees Goldman's actions: Imagine that you asked a builder to construct a house with materials that you know will eventually cause the house to light on fire and burn to the ground. In the meantime, you place a bet that the house will burn down, and also take out fire insurance on the house for when it does burn down. The house is built - which you then sell to an unsuspecting buyer. Sooner or later, sure enough, the house burns down. You make multiple profits...but it's just not right.

The SEC is saying that Goldman acted similarly with subprime mortgages and other risky debts, profiting enormously from the failure of financial instruments that they knew were designed and destined to fail. How the story will play out remains to be seen - but the stunning allegations caused Stocks in the US and abroad to plunge lower. Stocks had been on a nice run higher based on a reasonably good kick off to earnings season, but as money flowed out of Stocks on the news, it was parked in Bonds - helping home loan rates improve.

In other news, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) said that it would be "premature" to give an end date to the recession based on the economic data seen so far. And while some of the statistics may show that the economy has improved in many areas - the labor market continues to be very weak. It also remains to be seen how housing will fare without stimulus, and additionally, while corporate earnings seem to be on the rise, it is not yet known whether that is from improving business and higher revenues, or rather due to cost-cutting measures.

There was some good news last week on the housing front, as you can see in the chart below. Housing Starts for March came in higher than estimated and at the highest level since November 2008. Building Permits - an indication of future construction - also came in higher.

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Chart: Housing Starts

Keep in mind, however, that Housing Starts can be a double edged sword...as seeing more new construction of homes could be representative of builders' sentiment and speculation rather than actual purchases. Hopefully the new construction happening will be bought up, and not eventually become a drag on housing by adding to the already heavy load of inventory.

NATURE'S FIRST GREEN MAY BE GOLD...BUT BEING A LITTLE "GREEN" WILL ALSO HELP ADD A LITTLE "GOLD" TO YOUR BANK ACCOUNT, TOO! CHECK OUT THIS WEEK'S MORTGAGE MARKET GUIDE VIEW FOR ALL THE DETAILS.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Forecast for the Week  

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Goldman Sachs story will continue to unfold...and it will be very interesting to follow, as well as monitor the market reactions as more details and information become made known.

More housing news follows this week, with Thursday's Existing Home Sales Report followed by New Home Sales on Friday...and hopefully both of these reports will bring positive news on the real estate market. Less than two weeks remain for homebuyers to get in on the Tax Credit - purchase contracts need to be signed by April 30th to qualify!

There will also be more inflation news this week with Thursday's Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures inflation at the wholesale level. Last week it was reported that the Consumer Price Index for March met expectations, and while the report might give the Fed more ammunition to jawbone about inflation being low; there are many reasons to question whether inflation is really as low as being reported. The Feds will try to continue to make this case - as it helps keep borrowing costs for the US low, in the face of pumping out massive amounts of new debt.

Also on Thursday, we'll have another Initial Jobless Claims Report, and these days it's important to review every report about the labor market. Rounding out the week is Friday's Durable Goods Report, which gives us an update on consumer and business buying behavior on big ticket items that last for an extended period of time.

Along with the Goldman Sachs story potentially continuing to shake up Stocks, remember this rule of thumb: weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result.

As you can see in the chart below, it's been a volatile few weeks for Bonds and home loan rates since the Fed buying support ended. While Bonds and home loan rates ended last week on an improving note...with earnings season continuing, the Goldman Sachs drama ensuing, and a full slate of economic reports ahead...the volatility is likely to continue! If you have any questions about what all this means for your situation, don't hesitate to give me a call or email.

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Chart: Fannie Mae 4.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday, April 16, 2010)

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Mortgage Market View  

 

 

 

 

 

 

Reducing Waste Can Also Help Your Savings

This Thursday, April 22, marks the 40th anniversary of Earth Day. While many of the ideas associated with Earth Day are directed at helping the planet, many of those ideas can also have a positive impact on your own home budget.

The ideas below focus on specific ways that you can save - and in some instances make - money by reducing waste.

Recycle It

Most people already recycle on some level, whether at home or by dropping a plastic bottle in a recycling bin when they're at the mall. While recycling benefits the environment through less trash buried in landfills, it can also benefit your bottom line.

The reality is, the more you recycle, the less you have to pay for trash removal. So look for more opportunities to recycle rather than toss - and try to purchase items that have less packaging to begin with, so you'll have less trash.

In addition, don't forget that you can even make some money by recycling some items (such as MP3 players, cell phones, calculators, digital cameras, and more) through websites like YouRenew and BuyMyTronics.

Compost It

Communities across the country have developed citywide compost sites where people can drop off their grass clippings, leaves, and even Christmas trees. But you can also create a compost at your own home that benefits you in two ways.

First, a home compost makes it easy and convenient for you to compost - rather than throwaway - a wide variety of household and kitchen items. In fact, in addition to grass clippings, weeds and leaves, you can dispose of things you might normally throw away, including:

  • Shredded newspaper
  • Ripped cardboard
  • Ash from a fireplace or woodstove
  • Lint from your dryer and vacuum
  • Coffee grounds and tea bags
  • Fruit and vegetable scraps
  • Wool rags...and more!

When you add it all up, there's a lot of everyday waste that can be composted rather than thrown away - which can help reduce your garbage bill significantly when combined with recycling!

The second way that composting can help you save is by providing you with a free source of nutrient-rich compost for gardens and lawns. Which means you can save by not purchasing soil or black dirt...and you can save on delivery charges or gas money for your own vehicle. And in these challenging times, every little bit of money you save helps!

Sell It

If you have items around the house that you no longer use, try selling them rather than throwing them away. Whether you sell the items for very little money at a garage sale or on eBay, you'll be making money...rather than paying the garbage company to haul it away! If you've never sold an item on eBay, you can find a lot of helpful information on the get started on eBay website.

Donate It

Not every item can be sold, but that doesn't mean you have to resort to trashing it or paying to have it hauled away. By donating old clothing items or even a broken-down car, you can save on the garbage bill and even make money at the end of the year in the form of a tax deduction. It's a win-win-win situation!

TurboTax provides information and a video about donating on its website. Take a look for ideas on what to donate and how to make sure you qualify for a deduction.

Reuse It

One of the best ways to reduce waste - and save on your shopping bills - is to simply reuse items. That can mean using your regular plates and glasses, rather than paper or plastic cups that fill your garbage bin (and have to be purchased over and over again). Reusing plastic containers from products like sour cream or cottage cheese also means you don't have to throw those items away and you don't have to purchase plastic bags for leftovers. Other ideas include using washable towels and napkins instead of paper towels and paper napkins.

You can also save wrapping paper from a birthday party or holiday celebration for use later...that alone can eliminate the unnecessary bill of paying for additional garbage bags after a celebration.

Finally, don't forget items such as shower curtains. For example, by purchasing a shower curtain made out of Pack Cloth that's washable, you'll save not only on the expense of disposing of old shower curtains every few months, but also the expense of buying new ones so often. As an added benefit, Pack Cloth doesn't give off harmful toxins, so your home and family will be safer while you save.

By following these simple steps, you'll not only save by reducing waste, but you can actually make some money in the process!


Remember, as a general rule, weaker than expected economic data is good for rates, while positive data causes rates to rise.

Economic Calendar for the Week of April 19 - April 23

Date

ET

Economic Report

For

Estimate

Actual

Prior

Impact

Mon. April 19

10:00

Index of Leading Econ Ind (LEI)

Mar

1.0%

 

0.1%

Low

Wed. April 21

10:30

Crude Inventories

4/17

NA

 

-2.20M

Moderate

Thu. April 22

08:30

Jobless Claims (Initial)

4/17

NA

 

484K

Moderate

Thu. April 22

08:30

Core Producer Price Index (PPI)

Mar

0.1%

 

0.1%

Moderate

Thu. April 22

08:30

Producer Price Index (PPI)

Mar

0.5%

 

-0.6%

Moderate

Thu. April 22

08:30

Existing Home Sales

Mar

5.30M

 

5.02M

Moderate

Fri. April 23

08:30

Durable Goods Orders

Mar

0.0%

 

0.9%

Moderate

Fri. April 23

10:00

New Home Sales

Mar

320K

 

308K

Moderate

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[mmgwDisclosure]

 

The material contained in this newsletter has been prepared by an independent third-party provider. The content is provided for use by real estate, financial services and other professionals only and is not intended for consumer distribution. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee it is not without errors.

 

As your trusted advisor, I am sending you the MMG WEEKLY because I am committed to keeping you updated on the economic events that impact interest rates and how they may affect you.

 

Mortgage Market Guide, LLC is the copyright owner or licensee of the content and/or information in this email, unless otherwise indicated.   Mortgage Market Guide, LLC does not grant to you a license to any content, features or materials in this email.   You may not distribute, download, or save a copy of any of the content or screens except as otherwise provided in our Terms and Conditions of Membership, for any purpose.

 

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My goal is to provide you with premium service. When you need an answer, we are here to help. I spend 90% of my time finding mortgages to fit my client's needs, qualifying buyers and contacting my clients for potential savings. My competent and professional staff handles all the dayto- day tasks. During regular business hours, please call my team, if they don't know the answer- they will find it! I am a licensed Loan Officer who has been in the mortgage industry for over 9 years. I am also a Certified Mortgage Planner which unlike a traditional loan officer; a mortgage planners role is to help you integrate the loan you select into your overall long and short-term financial and investment plans, to minimize taxes and interest expense and improve cash flow. I have a Real Estate License; not to practice real estate, but so I can better understand the market and look out for my client’s best interests. I am also a homeowner and real estate investor.
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